How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything
A window onto the world’s next decade.
What will the future hold? This question is more relevant than ever in these unpredictable, dangerous times.
It is obviously difficult to arrive at a single, definitive answer; nonetheless, we can make informed forecasts. Which is where these summaries come in. Extrapolating from a variety of current patterns, they provide a probable preview of the changes we may expect to see over the next decade, as well as a picture of the type of world we'll likely live in by 2030.
So, what's life like in 2030? In a nutshell, things are different. Rising temperatures will challenge our largely urban, coastal way of life during the next decade. Baby boomers will become a powerhouse generation as the birth rate falls and life expectancy rises. Some national economies will stagnate, while others will surprisingly flourish.
To predict the problems and seize the opportunities that the next decade will offer, you must first understand what the future contains.
In this brief, you will learn
Which new technologies are providing hope in the fight against climate change and poverty?
Why women should expect higher financial benefits than males in the next ten years;
How our culture is set to shift toward a collaborative way of consumption.
1. The falling birth rate will permanently alter human demographics.
In 1968, academicians Paul and Anne Ehrlich published the groundbreaking book Population Bomb. The Ehrlichs contended that if the human race continued to reproduce at its current rate, humans would eventually overrun the globe.
After more than 50 years, many people remain concerned about overpopulation. But, rather than a baby boom, our main concern by 2030 may be a baby drought.
The essential point is that the declining birth rate will permanently alter human demographics.
Since the 1970s, women in the United States have had an average of fewer than two children. In other words, fewer than are required to replace the current generation.
What is wrong with that? A declining population could be good news for the planet's overburdened resources. However, our existing economic structure relies on the next generation to provide for the old and pay for pensions through their taxes. Governments worldwide, from Brazil to Japan, are debating who will best support their elderly populations in the following decades.
Why is the birth rate declining? Women are now increasingly involved in the workforce. As a result, they are more likely to wait until they have established themselves in their chosen field before raising a family. Fertility decreases with age, therefore women who have kids later in life have fewer children.
We are also having less sex. According to a research published in the Archives of Sexual Behavior in 2010, Americans had nine times less sex per year than they did in the 1990s. Why? It's also because technology has introduced a plethora of delightful distractions into our homes; sex is simply one of many activities we can engage in on a rainy night.
Not all countries' birth rates are declining. The African continent's current population is 1.3 billion. This figure is expected to rise to 2 billion by 2038 and 3 billion by 2061, with the majority of the growth occurring in Sub-Saharan Africa.
The African baby boom will have two significant spillover impacts. First, Sub-Saharan Africa relies on imported food. According to the World Bank, as the region's population rises, so will the markets for feeding and improving agriculture, with the potential to become a trillion-dollar sector.
Second, many Western nations will need to reconsider their strict immigration policies. They may eventually rely on immigration workers from the Global South to fund and care for their growing population of seniors.
2. Aging customers will have greater purchasing power than ever before.
Frederick and Gerard Phillips, a father and son combination from the Netherlands, cofounded the electronics business Phillips in 1891. Phillips remains relevant and lucrative throughout the twentieth century, thanks to a series of creative products, including tungsten filament light bulbs, the electric razor, the VCR, and the CD. This changed in the 1990s when Philips was abruptly outperformed by lower-cost, Asian-made devices. In the 2000s, the struggling corporation flirts with insolvency.
Phillips could have folded totally if Frans van Houten had not taken over in 2011. He switched Philips' attention to healthcare technologies, such as scanners and imagers. These products are currently in great demand, thanks in part to the world's aging population, and this demand is expected to rise further.
Here's the critical message: Older consumers will have greater spending power than before.
Van Houten realized 2011 what many businesses still need: the world's aging population, or gray market, provides a massive financial potential for businesses.
People 60 and older now account for more than half of the world's wealth, including baby boomers (born between 1944 and 1964) and the Silent Generation (born between 1925 and 1943). By 2030, there will be an additional 400 million persons in the 60+ age range worldwide.
This generation is expected to retire later than their predecessors, resulting in even more money. Corporations must tap into this spending power to support the economy and remain profitable.
Surprisingly, they rarely do. In fact, 96% of UK residents over the age of 50 report feeling neglected by firms and marketing.
To capitalize on this demographic transition, firms must talk to the 60-plus generation in a focused, aspirational manner, tailoring products and services to their needs. Unfortunately, they are not an accessible market to target. Their age implies that they've "seen it all" when it comes to advertising.
However, anticipating their shifting requirements and preferences will prove beneficial. There is a market, for example, for attractive shoes that provide orthopedic support. In addition, fashionable equipment can be adjusted to accommodate changing physical capabilities. A front-loading washing machine may be workable for a person in his 70s, but it will be difficult for that same user when he reaches his 80s.
The lesson is simple. Care for seniors to help the economy.
3. By 2030, the middle class will have relocated significantly.
Ask any economist, and she will tell you that the middle class drives the economy. They are neither wealthy nor poor; they are consistent, if cautious, consumers. And it is their consistent spending that keeps the economy moving.
Nonetheless, the once-strong middle classes in Europe and America are stagnating. Many conventional middle-class occupations have been automated or outsourced.
However, this is only sometimes true. Every year, more than a hundred million individuals join the middle class, and by 2030, Asia's middle classes, excluding Japan, will account for half of global consumer buying power.
The important lesson is that by 2030, the middle class will have changed considerably.
In 2030, we will witness the story of two middle classes emerging.
The middle class will proliferate in Asia and other developing countries. Continuing the current worldwide trend, considerably fewer people will live in poverty, resulting in a global net benefit.
Meanwhile, companies headquartered in developing countries, such as the Chinese e-commerce site Alibaba and ride-sharing platform Didi, will be set to become global leaders. Unless US and European enterprises that wish to enter those same markets can adapt to the culturally diverse demands of this rising middle class, their prospects are grim.
Walmart's foray into the developing globe exemplifies the risks of hasty growth into a new market. In South Korea, the grocery chain sold bulk-packaged commodities, seemingly unaware of the Korean consumer's desire for smaller purchases. There were no ski slopes in Brazil, so they sold skis. Needless to say, Walmart's expansion could have been more successful.
While the emerging middle classes will grow in wealth, they are also expected to incur greater debt as they acquire the conventional middle-class trappings of a home and a car and demonstrate their status through luxury products. Furthermore, the current growing trend in consumption will leave the world with even more waste to process than before.
In the United States and Europe, however, the middle class may continue to diminish. According to the Pew Research Center, 80 million US homes were deemed middle class in 1971, with 52 million classified as wealthy, working class, or poor. In 2015, 121.3 million families were classified as middle-class, whereas 120.8 million were not. So, while there are theoretically more middle-class homes, the share of the middle class has dropped considerably.
Previously, the developing world saw the Western middle-class lifestyle as aspirational. By 2030, this outlook could have changed.
4. Women will wield the purse strings by 2030.
The bankruptcy of investment firm Lehman Brothers in 2008 marked the beginning of a global recession. But what if it had been Lehman Sisters rather than Lehman Brothers? Would the bank have failed? Maybe not. A study of male and female brokers at an investment bank found that female brokers were more cautious, whereas male brokers took more risks.
Why is this important? By 2030, women will own more than half of the world's wealth for the first time. Global spending habits will shift as a result. Spending is projected to rise in sectors such as education, health care, and insurance, where women have historically spent more than males. Women will drive the move toward "safer" investments, such as indexed stock funds.
This is the crucial message: women will control the purse strings by 2030.
So, what causes this shift in women's spending power? Currently, women are working but confront significant barriers to development and prosperity. If a woman is also the primary caregiver, she might expect to miss a few years of employment and the associated compensation. According to a University of Chicago research, a female MBA who takes three or more years off work may see her compensation drop by almost 40% when compared to her male colleagues.
However, the future decade holds excellent news for working women. The pool of qualified workers will dwindle as our population ages and the birth rate declines. This means that businesses will be more reliant on working mothers than ever before.
In fact, this is already happening in Japan, which has one of the world's lowest birth rates. For many years, highly qualified Japanese women were expected to abandon their occupations after having children. They are now returning to the workforce since there aren't enough fresh workers to replace them. In Japan, a record 71 percent of working-age women are employed full-time.
And it appears that this shift in gender power dynamics is something we can prepare for. According to a new Gallup study, we are becoming more optimistic about women in positions of power. In 1953, Gallup polled respondents to determine if they preferred a male or female supervisor. Sixty-six percent want a man boss. A mere four percent favored a female boss. Gallup has asked this question each year since then. In 2017, 23% chose a male boss, 21% preferred a female boss, and the rest were neutral.
5. To weather the looming climate disaster, city living must change.
Paris, New York, Delhi, Shanghai, and London: The world's largest cities are hotbeds of art, culture, and finance, as well as inequality, pollution, and, yes, physical heat. It is true. Cities are warming faster than rural regions due to the high concentration of concrete and asphalt. These materials trap heat, which contributes to global warming. They are also hubs for consumption, building, and transportation. In fact, cities account for 75% of global energy consumption and 80% of carbon emissions.
Climate change will likely have a more significant impact on urban areas. Cities cover only 1% of the world's land area, but they house 55% of the world's population. Furthermore, 75 percent of cities are located on or near the coastline, rendering them vulnerable to rising sea levels. Asian megacities, such as Jakarta and Bangkok, are particularly vulnerable. Meanwhile, Venice, New Orleans, and Miami are under immediate threat. So, what can cities do to help minimize the upcoming climate crisis?
Here's the fundamental message: To weather the impending climate disaster, city living must change.
The good news is that city inhabitants can effect positive change by making a few minor changes in their behavior. However, convincing people to abandon old, environmentally damaging practices is difficult. What's the solution? Cities can incentivize residents to make more environmentally conscious decisions. Credit card acceptance on buses and lower fares would make public transportation not just an environmentally friendly option but also a cost-effective and handy one.
Cities could also cultivate their own food as an alternative method. Urban agriculture can reduce the carbon footprint associated with carrying food into cities while also increasing urban greenery, which absorbs more carbon emissions. In Singapore, urban agriculture programs are already in place. Sky Greens grows large quantities of lettuce and spinach in vertical gardens in metropolitan buildings. Thanks to clean technology, each tower has a tiny carbon footprint and costs just three dollars per month to maintain. A bonus: In economically disadvantaged areas, vertical gardening can repurpose abandoned buildings, bringing industry and jobs back to the city center.
Despite the climate hazard they pose, our cities continue to expand unabated. By 2030, nearly 400 communities will have more than a million residents. During the next decade, cities must encourage behavioral change and embrace green initiatives such as vertical gardening or risk severe consequences.
6. Prepare for rapid technological development in the next decade.
Remember the animated series The Jetsons? It was first released in 1962, although it is set in 2062 and follows the exploits of the Jetsons, a future family. Every day, father and husband George took a flying automobile to work while his wife, Jane, delegated housework to the robot housekeeper.
Although we may not be commuting in flying cars by 2030, we can look forward to several fascinating technical breakthroughs in the following ten years.
The essential lesson is to prepare for fast technological change in the following decade.
Unlike Jane Jetson, we may not have robot housekeepers, but robotics and other forms of artificial intelligence are already widely used. In the United States, bots have replaced two million workers. By 2030, manufacturers will have more programmers than laborers.
What do the next ten years hold for AI technology? Well, robots will expand into more cognitive disciplines. In 2030, law clerks and professors may have robot counterparts. Notably, so will surgeons. In fact, in 2016, a robot successfully operated on a pig's small intestine.
3D printing will gain popularity during the next decade. Everything from plastic parts to dental supplies will be printed instead of manufactured. Coastal locations impacted severely by global warming may utilize 3D-printed seawalls to protect against rising tides and 3D-printed artificial reefs to boost fish populations. Some Chinese companies are already printing entire homes, a development that bodes well for disaster relief efforts.
Of fact, while many in the developed world look forward to the future, people's lives in other areas of the world are more reminiscent of the nineteenth century than the twenty-first century. Many dwellings in impoverished countries need access to sewers; therefore, indoor flushing toilets are impossible. Without toilets, residents rely on pit latrines, which pose a health and hygiene risk.
In fact, almost 1.5 million children die each year as a result of contaminated water or poor sanitation. For these people, maybe the most significant technological advancement will be a variation on an existing product: the waterless toilet.
Loowatt, a start-up organization, is already manufacturing this unique toilet. It traps garbage in biodegradable film, which is subsequently sealed and collected. The trash is subsequently processed to generate electricity. This primary technological invention may have the most significant influence on the global population.
7. Get used to sharing rather than owning.
If you've ever seen kindergarteners play with buckets and spades in the sandpit, you'll know that sharing does not always come effortlessly. But by 2030, we should have gotten used to it. The sharing economy is on the increase. Soon, we will all own less and share more.
Consider owning a residence on each continent or a car in every city you visit. The only catch: they are not yours. Or not only yours. You are one of many people who pay a price to use them. Is that bothering you? If the answer is no, you may be a millennial or a Generation Zer. According to statistics, you prioritize lifestyle above property. You are considerably more likely than your parents to perceive the value in paying a modest price to use a product rather than a high price to own it.
Here's the main message: Get used to sharing rather than owning.
The sharing economy is not a new concept; in the early twenty-first century, ride-sharing services like Uber and home-sharing platforms like Airbnb have grown from start-ups to household names. And we should not have been astonished by their accomplishment. These early sharing platforms rode a market tsunami that emerged at the intersection of new mobile app technology and a shift in consumer preferences.
By 2030, collaborative consumption will account for half of our average spending, which involves utilizing services that allow us to use a product, such as a song, a car, or even a workspace, without owning it. We won't only be exchanging assets like bikes and camping gear. We'll share workspaces with a mix of businesses and freelancers, crowdfund each other's expenses, and use peer-to-peer lending to finance each other's home loans and college educations. In the process, we will avoid institutions such as banks and real estate companies.
All of this sounds idealistic. However, there may be some downsides. Sharing platforms are all about flexibility. That's excellent for their customers, but it could be awful for their staff. By using "flexible" temp and freelance workers, corporations like Uber avoid providing crucial benefits such as paid time off, health insurance, and retirement plans.
Despite these critical gaps for workers, the good impact of sharing is enormous. Sharing reduces possessions, and fewer possessions result in reduced overconsumption. Sharing could help save the earth if done correctly.
8. In the coming decade, we will realize cryptocurrency's full potential.
Late in the thirteenth century, the daring Italian explorer Marco Polo traveled to China. He was the first European to set foot there. He saw many fascinating items that had yet to arrive in Europe, such as gunpowder and porcelain. But what actually blew his mind? Paper money. The explorer saw it exchanged with great solemnity "as pure gold or silver."
We are now comfortable utilizing forms of money that are progressively abstracted from the value they represent, ranging from the paper currency that so impressed Marco Polo to stocks and bonds. And the next potential monetary revolution has already begun. By 2030, cryptocurrencies may have transitioned from the fringe to the mainstream.
The essential message here is that we will fully realize the potential of cryptocurrencies over the next decade.
What is cryptocurrency, exactly? Let's take Bitcoin, one of the most prominent cryptocurrencies, as an example.
Bitcoin is issued and distributed entirely online, using a peer-to-peer mechanism. It is not linked with any government or bank. Each Bitcoin transaction is recorded online in the form of a blockchain. A block is a documented transaction. These transactions combine to form an encrypted blockchain. The blockchain contains no gaps because the coding prevents them. And if any block is tampered with, it is immediately noticeable. According to crypto aficionados, the blockchain architecture makes Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies the world's most secure currency.
However, most consumers still need to be lured to abandon their bank accounts in favor of cryptocurrency. That is understandable. Cryptocurrency is volatile. Bitcoin's value is continually shifting. In 2017, a single bitcoin was worth $20,000. A year later, is it still identical to Bitcoin? $2,500.
However, blockchain technology has the potential to transform the way we conduct transactions in general. When a contractual provider completes his work, he can simply activate a code to initiate an automatic cryptocurrency payment to his account. A government may automatically deduct its share of the tax from each cryptocurrency transaction.
This might also help us spend more ethically. Dexio, for example, is an app that uses blockchain technology to track diamond transactions, allowing users to avoid acquiring blood diamonds. This similar method might be used to improve e-voting security and reduce online intellectual property infringement. If you listen to music, watch TV, or read a book online, you might make a direct donation to the creator.
There are numerous applications for cryptocurrency technology if we can only embrace it.
Final Summary
The coming decade will bring significant changes to the world. Some, such as the approaching climate crisis and an aging global population, will pose obstacles. Others, such as the growth of the sharing economy, bitcoin, and technological advancements, will create opportunities. With proper preparation, we may overcome the former and embrace the latter.
Actionable advice: Adapt with purpose.
Businesses are frequently tempted to diversify to ensure their future viability. They should take care to maintain their purpose. In the 1990s, Lego expanded into fashion and lifestyle products, with terrible consequences. They only became a toy-making superpower again by going "back to the brick," upgrading and broadening their main product line to align with current trends.